* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 89 92 91 87 83 74 69 62 52 39 26 V (KT) LAND 85 87 89 92 91 87 70 41 31 28 28 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 87 88 89 89 74 42 31 28 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 9 8 20 11 12 6 11 26 37 53 60 SHEAR DIR 17 355 305 352 7 351 342 301 232 230 236 243 263 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.6 27.5 24.9 23.6 23.5 23.5 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 159 159 155 146 131 106 98 98 98 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 139 142 141 137 127 113 93 88 87 87 81 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -48.8 -48.3 -48.9 -49.0 -48.1 -47.6 -47.8 -49.0 -48.2 -50.5 -50.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 8 11 8 9 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 63 64 65 67 70 64 52 51 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 37 37 39 39 32 33 28 28 29 27 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 39 40 45 45 55 13 22 19 36 0 -114 200 MB DIV 48 53 28 -6 -28 -39 -23 0 105 144 93 35 0 LAND (KM) 411 391 357 322 312 199 -40 -226 -439 -634 -800 -763 -479 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.5 29.1 31.2 33.6 35.8 37.9 39.9 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.9 89.7 90.9 92.0 94.0 95.8 96.1 95.1 92.3 88.2 84.2 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 10 11 11 11 14 18 19 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 54 34 43 64 52 59 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -4. -10. -17. -22. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -3. -7. -7. -7. -9. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 6. 1. -2. -10. -14. -20. -30. -43. -56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 6. 2. -2. -11. -16. -23. -33. -46. -59. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY