* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 09/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 31 35 42 46 48 48 47 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 31 35 42 46 48 48 47 46 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 33 36 39 40 40 41 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 14 13 7 17 15 19 21 21 23 18 7 SHEAR DIR 240 251 272 260 247 263 11 22 53 80 106 137 151 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 142 139 137 138 140 139 141 145 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 129 127 123 121 119 119 117 120 125 128 128 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 50 53 47 50 46 51 47 51 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -26 -35 -35 -18 -28 -41 -74 -73 -98 -89 -96 -87 200 MB DIV 2 -4 -1 21 24 -33 -18 -39 -14 -62 -3 -12 -4 LAND (KM) 366 390 392 404 436 534 624 668 672 626 507 357 189 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.2 67.9 68.7 69.4 70.7 71.8 72.5 73.1 73.8 75.0 76.5 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 39 37 40 35 36 40 40 39 46 57 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 344 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 31. 30. 30. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 26. 28. 28. 27. 26. 27. 29. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 09/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 09/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY