* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * LOWELL EP132008 09/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 20 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 23 24 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 25 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 22 23 20 32 41 48 49 46 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 149 140 155 180 211 201 217 223 237 241 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 30.0 30.4 30.8 30.7 30.2 28.7 25.7 22.4 22.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 165 169 172 171 167 151 120 84 79 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -49.2 -48.2 -46.6 -47.2 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 9 7 12 6 9 2 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 57 51 49 43 45 47 43 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 73 69 73 61 40 34 53 64 7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 36 42 43 33 32 11 19 11 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 91 35 -63 -136 -308 -460 -591 -693 -672 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.9 27.0 28.7 30.8 32.3 34.1 34.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.0 108.4 108.2 108.0 107.4 107.1 106.9 106.5 106.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 69/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 24. 25. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -10. -22. -35. -42. -47. -51. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. -6. -17. -32. -38. -42. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -5. -10. -21. -33. -38. -42. -45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP132008 LOWELL 09/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132008 LOWELL 09/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED