* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 89 89 87 80 72 65 51 33 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 89 89 87 49 34 29 28 28 29 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 85 86 86 87 87 51 34 29 28 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 11 11 11 8 0 8 26 38 56 66 78 SHEAR DIR 331 334 359 37 6 300 301 280 200 213 208 225 228 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.9 27.9 25.3 23.6 23.9 24.1 23.0 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 157 157 150 136 109 98 101 102 95 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 139 140 140 132 118 97 88 91 92 86 80 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.6 -48.6 -48.6 -48.3 -48.2 -47.2 -48.1 -48.1 -48.3 -49.5 -50.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 9 9 10 5 2 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 65 64 65 69 65 47 36 33 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 37 40 38 37 35 29 27 27 21 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 32 34 35 34 42 45 26 48 104 66 16 -52 200 MB DIV 52 19 34 26 -31 -51 25 47 133 36 29 30 -25 LAND (KM) 369 341 311 270 261 53 -170 -393 -636 -779 -548 -142 35 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.8 27.3 28.7 30.7 33.2 35.9 37.7 38.5 39.7 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.7 90.6 91.7 92.8 94.8 95.9 94.9 92.0 87.5 81.9 76.7 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 15 19 21 22 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 27 39 57 52 49 6 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -7. -14. -20. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -8. -8. -13. -21. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -12. -18. -31. -49. -61. -74. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -13. -20. -34. -52. -64. -76. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY