* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 09/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 47 51 49 49 46 43 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 47 51 49 49 46 43 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 42 45 46 46 45 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 13 12 13 15 25 25 24 28 30 16 14 SHEAR DIR 255 270 270 271 224 289 9 25 47 77 105 112 89 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 140 138 138 138 138 139 140 142 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 128 125 122 120 117 116 118 119 122 125 127 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 53 52 43 43 44 47 46 48 51 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -31 -30 -16 -3 -34 -38 -71 -79 -95 -83 -70 -20 200 MB DIV -17 -1 14 29 -1 -48 -24 -36 -32 -44 16 -1 13 LAND (KM) 411 441 445 474 517 618 711 755 732 677 619 522 396 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 25.3 26.2 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 67.0 67.8 68.5 69.1 70.0 70.7 71.0 71.6 72.5 73.7 74.9 76.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 4 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 35 35 38 31 28 29 33 41 40 47 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 365 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 25. 24. 25. 23. 21. 20. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 17. 22. 26. 24. 24. 21. 18. 17. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 09/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 09/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY