* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 90 90 88 80 72 59 40 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 90 90 64 39 31 28 29 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 85 85 85 85 64 38 30 28 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 10 4 6 4 10 19 35 72 98 80 69 SHEAR DIR 346 360 30 315 290 334 200 218 222 234 238 244 264 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.4 25.5 23.6 23.2 23.2 21.8 19.4 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 156 154 143 111 98 96 96 89 81 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 137 138 136 126 99 88 86 85 80 74 68 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -49.4 -49.3 -48.0 -48.7 -48.0 -47.8 -49.6 -47.8 -48.4 -49.0 -51.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 9 11 7 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 64 63 64 64 64 67 62 49 38 36 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 38 36 36 32 30 27 29 24 17 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 30 31 52 49 21 51 83 116 64 0 -30 200 MB DIV 10 42 28 41 -12 1 25 79 92 38 -10 -13 -46 LAND (KM) 322 272 242 225 149 -94 -371 -634 -834 -806 -553 -391 -197 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.2 30.1 33.0 35.8 38.2 40.5 42.6 44.4 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 89.9 90.9 91.8 92.9 94.0 95.5 94.9 92.3 88.4 84.6 80.1 75.2 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 16 18 19 19 20 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 41 56 48 47 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -10. -17. -24. -29. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -6. -10. -17. -17. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -7. -13. -24. -41. -55. -67. -77. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -5. -13. -26. -45. -58. -71. -80. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY