* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 87 86 87 82 71 66 52 35 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 86 87 86 87 46 33 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 85 85 85 85 46 32 28 29 30 30 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 12 13 8 10 16 30 46 81 99 95 85 SHEAR DIR 15 20 360 352 322 107 196 231 241 243 250 260 270 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 27.4 24.3 22.8 23.3 21.6 17.5 14.4 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 152 149 130 103 95 99 90 77 72 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 138 134 130 114 92 87 90 82 72 69 70 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.2 -48.2 -48.4 -48.8 -47.7 -48.6 -48.9 -49.1 -50.1 -49.4 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 12 10 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 63 62 65 62 60 57 54 56 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 38 38 33 35 31 26 30 25 19 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 23 31 30 21 14 0 53 46 -14 20 33 28 200 MB DIV 28 24 41 -5 -47 26 48 149 44 49 12 -16 -16 LAND (KM) 301 268 237 131 11 -221 -504 -774 -885 -554 -344 -190 57 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.4 29.1 31.3 34.2 37.3 40.2 42.8 45.1 47.0 48.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 92.2 93.2 94.1 95.0 95.8 95.0 91.3 85.6 80.0 74.0 67.7 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 18 24 26 25 24 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 63 46 49 20 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -4. -13. -19. -26. -31. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -2. -6. -10. -7. -11. -17. -22. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. -5. -15. -19. -31. -47. -63. -75. -86. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 1. 2. -3. -14. -19. -33. -50. -67. -79. -89. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED