* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 88 89 83 74 65 50 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 88 64 39 31 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 91 92 91 68 39 30 29 29 30 30 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 15 11 7 10 21 34 71 98 114 88 52 SHEAR DIR 20 359 333 320 310 170 222 246 246 256 253 251 259 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 25.6 23.3 23.0 21.8 16.9 14.7 16.2 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 149 145 112 98 98 92 77 73 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 135 131 127 100 90 91 86 73 70 70 68 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -48.5 -47.9 -49.0 -48.4 -48.0 -49.5 -48.4 -49.6 -49.9 -48.2 -47.2 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 8 10 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 64 66 67 63 65 53 53 55 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 38 34 34 34 30 29 29 25 17 11 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 30 17 21 -8 31 79 -23 -31 15 35 125 200 MB DIV 7 17 18 -4 -26 19 87 119 9 17 9 -23 -14 LAND (KM) 280 246 156 38 -82 -362 -688 -967 -549 -297 -103 101 146 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.5 28.1 29.1 30.1 32.8 36.1 39.4 42.5 45.3 47.5 49.3 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.2 93.1 94.0 94.7 95.3 95.5 93.0 87.6 80.1 73.1 66.4 59.8 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 16 23 29 31 27 25 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 47 51 34 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. -1. -9. -18. -26. -33. -38. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -7. -10. -18. -22. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 0. -5. -14. -23. -38. -58. -75. -88. -96. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -1. -7. -16. -25. -40. -60. -77. -91. -98. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY