* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 09/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 47 49 49 49 51 53 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 47 49 38 31 28 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 33 29 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 15 9 9 14 12 22 21 24 14 26 33 SHEAR DIR 213 189 196 180 136 108 104 120 127 157 168 200 234 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.3 27.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 142 143 150 151 150 145 138 129 132 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 126 127 128 133 134 132 126 120 114 116 94 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 42 42 36 37 36 39 42 49 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 7 8 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 -18 -24 -21 -52 -78 -98 -122 -90 -3 26 6 200 MB DIV 28 13 -27 12 -7 -28 -5 -67 -3 -21 7 6 31 LAND (KM) 300 324 343 331 324 350 254 74 -51 -75 -13 -62 -99 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.4 27.6 29.0 31.3 34.2 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.1 71.9 72.7 73.6 74.4 76.0 77.7 79.4 80.9 81.8 81.5 79.3 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 10 14 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 39 51 62 62 43 60 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 23. 25. 24. 25. 27. 29. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 24. 24. 24. 26. 28. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 09/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 09/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY