* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 91 91 90 80 67 53 34 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 90 91 71 52 35 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 92 75 54 35 29 29 30 30 30 29 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 8 6 4 20 38 76 99 88 83 74 N/A SHEAR DIR 16 22 321 313 272 217 215 231 225 233 242 258 N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.7 24.5 22.5 22.4 21.7 18.7 14.8 15.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 150 146 134 105 93 93 90 80 73 75 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 132 129 117 94 85 84 82 75 70 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -48.4 -48.3 -48.1 -47.4 -48.3 -47.9 -47.2 -47.9 -49.1 -50.9 -51.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 64 61 64 58 49 42 33 24 37 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 36 33 34 32 31 27 26 27 22 18 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 32 26 36 33 13 88 149 81 -12 -95 -57 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 0 -2 29 25 33 109 20 1 -7 -19 0 N/A LAND (KM) 257 172 71 -60 -197 -481 -819 -999 -771 -550 -175 -11 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.2 28.9 30.0 31.0 34.0 37.7 40.7 43.3 45.6 47.6 49.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.1 93.8 94.4 95.2 95.9 94.9 91.4 87.8 82.6 76.6 69.7 62.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 12 13 19 22 22 24 25 26 26 N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 31 6 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -12. -21. -29. -36. -41. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -12. -17. -26. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -9. -22. -35. -53. -69. -88. -97.-103. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 0. -10. -23. -37. -56. -72. -91.-100.-105. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.7 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY