* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 09/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 45 48 50 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 45 48 50 51 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 40 43 44 44 44 45 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 9 6 9 11 14 22 25 24 19 15 22 SHEAR DIR 196 203 184 125 117 89 99 136 146 186 169 215 218 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 142 145 151 151 148 141 135 131 128 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 126 127 130 135 134 129 120 113 108 105 104 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 6 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 51 48 45 44 40 37 37 36 39 44 45 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -28 -35 -35 -33 -66 -92 -117 -58 -23 -21 -25 -7 200 MB DIV -9 -17 -1 -28 0 -8 -21 -25 14 -10 19 -9 17 LAND (KM) 300 325 339 336 338 347 220 51 5 23 50 51 24 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.8 25.7 26.8 28.1 29.0 29.8 30.2 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.2 72.9 73.8 74.6 76.4 78.0 79.6 80.5 80.7 80.7 80.8 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 41 52 57 65 7 42 0 4 2 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 09/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 09/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY