* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 98 93 82 64 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 97 66 49 39 31 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 96 68 49 39 30 29 30 30 30 33 30 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 5 9 17 30 54 88 106 105 96 88 N/A SHEAR DIR 2 327 252 182 200 206 222 233 227 230 240 243 N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 26.9 25.1 22.9 23.2 21.5 17.2 14.5 16.1 12.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 144 125 109 96 98 90 77 73 75 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 127 112 98 89 90 82 73 70 71 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.8 -48.3 -47.5 -47.7 -49.1 -47.3 -47.8 -48.0 -48.8 -50.2 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 10 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 62 60 57 49 51 41 34 24 31 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 33 33 32 29 28 30 26 22 18 10 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 35 20 13 56 129 106 49 -13 -80 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV 13 16 29 26 -4 60 78 33 19 9 16 34 N/A LAND (KM) 142 20 -101 -258 -424 -742 -953 -624 -386 -111 78 192 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.2 30.1 31.7 33.3 36.8 40.2 43.2 45.6 47.8 49.5 51.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.8 95.6 95.7 95.8 92.4 86.4 80.7 74.2 67.2 60.3 52.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 16 18 25 27 26 26 25 25 25 N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -19. -28. -37. -45. -50. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -12. -15. -13. -11. -11. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -6. -10. -13. -20. -23. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -4. -14. -32. -51. -69. -86. -97.-103.-110. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 3. -2. -13. -31. -51. -71. -90.-100.-107.-112. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY