* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 09/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 42 47 50 52 53 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 42 47 50 52 53 54 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 41 44 46 47 48 41 SHEAR (KTS) 16 9 7 8 6 5 14 14 25 12 15 8 24 SHEAR DIR 206 192 132 136 184 82 133 121 162 171 188 228 232 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 145 148 151 149 146 140 135 131 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 128 130 132 134 130 125 118 111 107 107 105 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 3 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 40 37 36 38 35 42 49 53 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -40 -39 -37 -52 -85 -106 -94 -30 -15 -21 -31 -20 200 MB DIV -16 0 -29 -9 -35 11 -58 2 -1 3 -2 15 11 LAND (KM) 304 330 330 334 353 315 156 39 19 52 51 16 -9 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.3 25.3 26.2 27.3 28.4 29.2 29.5 29.6 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 72.9 73.7 74.6 75.4 77.1 78.6 79.8 80.4 80.5 80.6 81.0 81.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 51 57 64 73 35 23 3 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 09/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 09/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY