* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/13/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 98 92 79 61 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 72 52 41 35 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 75 53 41 35 29 29 30 30 32 28 25 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 3 12 24 37 74 94 113 105 91 79 N/A SHEAR DIR 312 323 326 224 232 215 230 231 232 234 243 243 N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 27.3 25.4 24.1 22.8 22.4 18.2 14.5 15.9 13.1 12.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 143 129 111 102 97 95 80 73 74 71 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 126 114 99 93 91 88 75 70 70 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.4 -47.7 -48.0 -48.3 -47.7 -47.5 -47.6 -47.1 -47.5 -49.1 -49.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 11 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 55 51 49 49 37 25 25 35 38 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 31 29 28 28 27 25 21 19 10 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 20 9 20 107 94 100 34 -78 -79 3 N/A 200 MB DIV 39 35 62 40 13 78 39 28 12 -1 -10 29 N/A LAND (KM) 48 -78 -215 -374 -548 -841 -672 -450 -91 36 72 581 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.2 31.4 33.1 34.7 38.2 42.3 45.4 47.9 49.9 51.4 52.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.0 95.4 94.7 94.0 89.3 82.0 75.3 68.3 61.2 54.5 47.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 15 18 21 30 32 28 26 24 23 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -21. -31. -40. -48. -52. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -14. -16. -11. -9. -9. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -19. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -5. -18. -36. -55. -72. -89.-102.-109.-116. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 3. -3. -16. -34. -55. -73. -92.-105.-112.-119. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED