* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 78 74 61 46 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 60 45 37 33 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 59 44 36 32 29 30 30 31 29 25 23 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 0 13 21 27 47 79 83 99 108 97 75 N/A SHEAR DIR 277 181 212 215 205 219 230 232 236 242 253 263 N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.1 25.7 24.2 23.2 23.2 20.7 14.5 16.0 12.5 12.7 11.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 126 113 103 98 101 89 74 75 70 69 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 110 101 94 91 95 84 71 71 67 67 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -47.6 -47.9 -48.5 -48.5 -47.8 -48.4 -47.5 -48.1 -48.2 -50.8 -51.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 53 53 51 53 48 36 29 24 31 30 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 31 31 28 28 28 25 23 18 11 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 19 21 24 73 127 84 70 7 -85 -110 -41 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 57 53 13 46 71 61 21 28 -6 -14 11 N/A LAND (KM) -101 -224 -354 -540 -707 -906 -463 -147 57 117 539 953 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.6 32.8 34.7 36.5 40.5 44.3 47.4 49.7 51.6 52.7 53.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.3 95.2 93.8 92.3 85.8 76.6 68.4 60.9 53.8 47.8 41.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 17 22 27 36 36 30 26 22 19 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -19. -28. -35. -42. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -9. -10. -10. -6. -4. -4. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -22. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -7. -11. -24. -39. -55. -71. -83. -91. -96.-104. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -7. -11. -24. -39. -55. -71. -83. -91. -96.-104. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY