* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 09/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 31 32 33 32 31 31 31 31 33 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 31 32 33 32 31 31 31 31 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 27 27 27 25 23 21 20 21 21 23 24 SHEAR (KTS) 31 27 30 32 33 30 28 20 19 14 16 15 16 SHEAR DIR 260 262 263 263 261 266 264 270 266 267 268 266 286 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 135 135 134 134 133 132 132 133 134 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 127 127 126 124 123 121 118 116 116 117 120 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 62 60 57 58 51 47 41 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -39 -50 -58 -57 -62 -89 -95 -100 -103 -108 -102 -93 200 MB DIV 20 9 -12 -11 9 -21 15 -23 -7 -16 -5 -19 1 LAND (KM) 1587 1558 1536 1527 1525 1526 1521 1526 1507 1474 1427 1354 1252 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.3 19.2 20.4 21.6 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.3 45.2 46.1 46.9 48.4 49.8 50.8 51.7 52.3 53.0 53.9 55.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 27 37 35 31 35 25 25 25 29 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 09/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 09/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY