* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 39 33 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 39 34 31 29 29 30 32 27 23 21 21 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 12 19 30 46 75 89 111 112 87 64 60 N/A SHEAR DIR 193 219 232 204 217 234 237 233 234 239 251 244 N/A SST (C) 27.1 25.4 24.2 23.2 22.4 22.4 15.9 15.5 13.8 11.5 12.6 11.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 111 103 98 95 97 78 75 71 68 68 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 98 94 91 89 92 75 72 68 66 65 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.0 -48.0 -49.0 -49.3 -47.9 -47.8 -47.8 -47.3 -47.7 -49.6 -52.6 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 49 47 46 49 36 25 23 32 39 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 28 28 25 26 23 19 11 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 9 7 54 104 128 115 33 -81 -112 -32 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV 41 55 48 60 91 23 38 21 9 -5 33 51 N/A LAND (KM) -235 -380 -538 -702 -879 -672 -319 13 -4 386 703 1032 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 33.1 34.6 36.6 38.5 42.3 46.2 49.3 51.4 52.9 53.6 54.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.4 94.8 94.1 91.9 89.6 82.0 72.2 63.6 56.3 50.1 45.3 40.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 21 27 30 38 36 29 23 18 15 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. -1. -11. PERSISTENCE -12. -19. -24. -28. -30. -30. -29. -27. -21. -14. -6. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -11. -17. -22. -28. -32. -40. -51. -63. -69. -65. -62. -70. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -11. -17. -22. -28. -32. -40. -51. -63. -69. -65. -62. -70. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -45.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY