* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 09/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 35 36 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 35 36 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 24 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 29 25 21 26 12 24 21 27 26 30 31 SHEAR DIR 252 253 259 259 250 272 269 247 252 252 266 264 271 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 140 141 141 141 139 137 138 137 137 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 133 134 133 131 130 126 123 121 120 120 122 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 64 62 58 61 60 57 51 54 52 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -37 -45 -45 -45 -67 -88 -84 -95 -96 -86 -85 -80 200 MB DIV 25 1 -7 10 15 -4 1 -20 -3 -11 8 -15 8 LAND (KM) 1465 1438 1421 1417 1413 1394 1351 1297 1232 1177 1100 1005 896 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.3 19.5 20.8 22.1 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 48.9 50.6 52.2 53.6 54.6 55.5 56.5 57.7 59.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 7 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 35 39 38 39 50 46 37 42 41 38 36 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 09/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 09/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY