* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 29 29 30 30 28 23 19 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 16 24 35 50 76 91 109 109 96 74 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 232 210 221 228 240 237 233 231 239 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 23.9 22.9 23.0 23.1 18.5 14.7 15.7 11.4 12.8 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 101 97 99 100 83 75 74 69 69 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 93 90 93 95 79 72 71 67 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.0 -49.1 -49.4 -48.6 -47.8 -48.4 -47.5 -47.9 -48.4 -50.2 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 47 45 47 49 35 22 19 29 32 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 24 24 25 24 25 36 37 31 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 9 64 113 146 119 109 53 -82 -116 -56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 34 69 98 67 59 18 14 -21 3 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -402 -594 -746 -911 -820 -415 -81 25 258 645 1051 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 35.2 37.0 38.9 40.8 45.0 48.2 50.6 52.3 53.3 54.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 93.2 91.6 88.2 84.7 75.1 66.6 59.0 51.9 46.2 40.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 27 33 37 37 30 25 21 19 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 18 CX,CY: 5/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 15. 11. 9. 8. 1. -12. PERSISTENCE -14. -23. -31. -36. -40. -40. -38. -35. -29. -20. -9. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 7. 8. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -13. -22. -29. -32. -33. -35. -37. -35. -36. -38. -37. -46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -13. -22. -29. -32. -33. -35. -37. -35. -36. -38. -37. -46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -50.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY