* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 22 23 24 26 26 26 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 30 32 32 31 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 30 30 31 27 24 23 23 24 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 26 30 45 54 66 70 70 81 85 73 67 82 N/A SHEAR DIR 227 218 218 233 238 243 251 248 228 225 247 234 N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.7 22.8 22.4 20.2 14.9 10.3 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 97 99 97 88 77 73 69 64 61 64 64 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 92 95 93 84 75 72 67 62 59 62 62 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -49.2 -47.9 -47.7 -47.6 -47.8 -47.0 -47.3 -45.4 -46.5 -52.2 -50.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 46 46 51 51 51 57 49 28 35 33 41 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 28 30 25 28 28 27 27 29 32 32 24 15 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 83 140 151 129 126 144 152 163 29 -39 25 N/A 200 MB DIV 38 76 87 76 45 76 88 79 32 11 30 58 N/A LAND (KM) -634 -812 -999 -703 -534 -11 199 898 1251 1318 1161 1006 N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 37.7 39.9 42.4 44.8 49.0 53.2 56.0 57.5 57.6 56.3 55.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 90.7 87.6 82.4 77.2 65.8 52.9 42.8 37.6 36.5 38.6 40.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 33 40 46 45 45 39 24 9 3 8 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 24 CX,CY: 10/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 25. 23. 21. 19. 19. 12. -2. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -17. -16. -13. -9. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -17. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. -4. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -5. -10. -18. -29. -42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -5. -10. -18. -29. -42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED