* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 09/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 35 35 36 37 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 35 35 36 37 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 23 25 26 13 23 21 28 24 30 30 29 SHEAR DIR 253 254 254 255 269 276 238 261 258 269 268 270 273 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 144 145 141 141 138 138 138 138 140 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 136 138 133 130 125 123 121 122 124 123 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 60 59 60 61 58 52 53 48 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -31 -35 -39 -50 -69 -68 -83 -84 -75 -78 -71 -57 200 MB DIV 3 13 1 -2 -6 1 -9 -3 -22 7 -14 8 -2 LAND (KM) 1367 1361 1356 1364 1319 1259 1183 1083 1000 926 829 730 651 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.5 22.3 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.4 49.3 50.2 51.1 52.9 54.6 55.9 57.1 58.2 59.5 60.9 62.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 7 7 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 49 60 58 59 50 42 35 36 35 33 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 12. 14. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 09/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 09/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED