* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 09/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 36 41 43 45 50 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 36 41 43 45 50 54 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 42 SHEAR (KTS) 21 17 19 25 25 22 17 17 21 20 18 16 17 SHEAR DIR 242 238 219 229 238 240 261 262 290 305 304 299 307 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 141 141 138 134 134 136 139 140 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 133 132 132 127 120 119 118 119 119 120 119 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 57 56 62 63 57 54 56 56 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -56 -53 -55 -52 -42 -42 -41 -47 -35 -32 -7 -15 200 MB DIV 12 -3 -7 11 17 9 9 -3 15 -8 16 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1045 1028 931 842 763 672 663 739 805 880 903 939 992 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.5 22.0 23.3 24.7 25.6 26.4 27.0 27.7 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.0 56.9 57.9 58.8 60.6 62.2 63.4 64.4 65.3 66.0 66.9 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 56 48 54 59 47 34 32 29 34 28 24 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 18. 21. 25. 29. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 18. 20. 25. 29. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 09/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 09/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY