* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME AL802008 09/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 50 59 65 68 71 73 74 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 50 59 65 68 47 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 37 43 38 37 39 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 16 17 17 13 13 10 11 20 18 22 18 SHEAR DIR 322 289 326 337 351 335 3 310 323 291 298 293 302 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 163 161 163 163 164 162 156 154 152 154 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 160 160 158 160 159 159 155 148 144 140 141 138 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 65 65 67 61 66 59 59 58 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 41 45 57 56 46 47 44 30 20 23 21 19 200 MB DIV 40 28 27 16 12 23 53 26 4 6 17 11 3 LAND (KM) 319 277 259 292 333 422 274 155 80 18 -64 31 69 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.5 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.8 60.6 61.4 62.2 63.7 65.3 66.9 68.5 70.2 71.7 73.1 74.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 95 93 85 92 99 91 104 95 91 97 9999 98 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 33. 38. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 35. 42. 47. 50. 52. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 30. 39. 45. 48. 51. 53. 54. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802008 NONAME 09/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802008 NONAME 09/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY