* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 55 63 67 69 74 78 79 78 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 55 63 67 69 74 78 79 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 29 31 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 21 26 23 22 21 21 23 16 14 15 11 9 6 SHEAR DIR 68 78 90 99 100 92 93 101 105 123 102 122 123 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 148 149 149 148 147 146 142 138 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 84 81 83 83 84 83 79 81 74 70 65 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 58 62 69 69 64 54 54 58 61 92 98 83 76 200 MB DIV 94 115 98 88 86 80 33 39 44 44 45 38 34 LAND (KM) 578 554 541 511 484 448 437 427 453 528 633 743 824 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.9 97.7 98.5 99.2 100.6 102.2 103.9 105.7 107.6 109.7 111.7 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 16. 18. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 23. 31. 37. 41. 47. 51. 51. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 21. 30. 38. 43. 44. 49. 53. 54. 53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED