* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 42 54 61 66 69 71 71 73 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 42 54 61 51 39 41 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 35 32 29 37 40 43 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 15 13 14 14 10 10 13 19 18 16 16 SHEAR DIR 262 295 310 327 303 314 275 303 254 273 258 273 257 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 161 164 164 162 155 151 147 144 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 159 158 160 161 157 147 141 135 130 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 65 68 67 66 61 57 57 58 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 58 63 54 47 49 21 20 11 8 0 18 200 MB DIV 57 22 11 19 25 32 39 6 16 12 14 0 6 LAND (KM) 267 260 279 333 377 355 166 67 -26 -21 24 45 -4 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.1 16.5 17.8 18.8 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.6 61.3 62.1 62.8 64.5 66.2 67.8 69.4 70.9 72.2 73.5 74.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 93 88 88 100 99 100 99 91 9999 9999 1 62 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 32. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 30. 37. 44. 48. 51. 52. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 34. 41. 46. 49. 51. 51. 53. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY