* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 33 41 49 53 57 61 64 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 33 41 49 53 57 46 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 27 29 30 27 31 32 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 16 18 17 16 18 19 24 20 21 20 23 SHEAR DIR 274 288 279 287 294 280 303 272 298 299 325 319 336 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 166 166 164 162 160 158 156 154 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 158 162 163 164 161 158 153 150 146 143 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 9 11 10 12 11 12 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 70 70 68 67 63 63 61 62 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 3 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 61 54 61 51 46 17 18 11 12 16 21 15 200 MB DIV 30 27 8 12 0 17 6 6 13 4 -6 0 -9 LAND (KM) 288 301 329 361 370 333 182 135 66 19 -17 97 205 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.1 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.3 65.0 65.9 66.8 68.7 70.7 72.6 74.4 76.1 77.8 79.2 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 10 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 74 71 66 81 101 102 105 99 104 89 54 107 108 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 21. 27. 33. 38. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 20. 27. 29. 33. 37. 40. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 13. 21. 29. 33. 37. 41. 44. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY