* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * INVEST EP902008 09/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 47 53 57 59 60 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 47 53 57 59 60 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 38 40 42 SHEAR (KTS) 21 25 25 20 15 14 8 9 14 12 12 15 10 SHEAR DIR 80 87 93 92 99 91 106 150 179 178 180 164 180 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 150 148 147 147 143 139 136 136 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 10 9 10 8 9 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 85 82 82 82 79 80 82 76 74 67 61 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 49 47 48 46 45 41 62 69 64 63 51 200 MB DIV 77 77 85 80 53 51 14 37 68 51 37 41 34 LAND (KM) 494 461 428 422 425 441 460 459 531 590 731 806 968 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.3 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.1 98.7 99.4 100.1 101.6 103.3 105.1 106.9 108.9 111.0 113.2 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 37. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 37. 38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/19/08 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART