* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 58 62 66 69 73 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 58 62 66 69 73 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 39 43 45 48 51 56 62 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 17 16 14 15 14 21 16 15 13 11 7 SHEAR DIR 291 285 294 295 290 285 296 279 295 302 324 315 358 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 166 166 162 160 160 156 154 153 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 162 163 164 163 159 155 153 147 143 141 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 70 67 68 65 65 62 65 63 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 62 54 48 38 25 21 3 2 4 14 24 200 MB DIV 31 19 13 3 20 13 11 13 10 11 5 13 0 LAND (KM) 292 329 333 344 347 295 135 84 90 13 51 139 233 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.4 18.8 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.4 65.3 66.1 67.0 67.9 69.7 71.6 73.5 75.3 76.8 78.3 79.4 80.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 68 63 77 103 104 95 108 105 102 36 82 107 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 25. 31. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 33. 37. 41. 44. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 33. 37. 41. 44. 48. 48. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 83.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY