* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 48 54 59 61 62 62 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 48 54 59 61 62 62 63 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 35 37 38 39 SHEAR (KTS) 23 24 22 19 14 9 10 10 13 15 13 17 11 SHEAR DIR 75 81 88 95 98 104 140 137 161 156 165 162 177 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 149 149 149 148 148 145 141 137 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 79 78 82 79 81 77 74 66 61 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 54 51 53 53 50 38 41 49 53 50 51 49 200 MB DIV 89 93 91 71 53 41 21 48 59 46 24 24 8 LAND (KM) 481 451 422 406 396 393 384 374 423 491 659 783 945 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.5 98.9 99.4 99.9 101.2 102.8 104.4 106.2 108.1 110.4 112.9 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 23. 29. 34. 36. 37. 37. 38. 39. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED