* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 52 56 59 62 64 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 52 56 59 56 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 34 35 37 38 39 38 40 43 SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 19 18 19 21 23 24 20 22 14 21 15 SHEAR DIR 282 286 270 272 274 298 274 285 285 321 310 332 331 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 160 156 156 153 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 162 161 160 160 157 153 151 147 145 142 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 69 67 65 65 62 59 63 61 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 58 59 57 53 60 30 36 14 15 23 21 32 30 200 MB DIV 23 18 24 37 13 20 -5 8 -6 -3 0 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 366 397 390 354 336 240 108 94 107 9 22 126 234 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.7 66.5 67.3 68.1 70.0 71.8 73.5 75.2 76.9 78.3 79.5 80.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 80 84 97 108 111 100 107 107 116 58 102 109 104 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 28. 31. 33. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY