* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 47 54 56 56 55 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 40 47 54 56 56 55 55 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 33 34 35 34 SHEAR (KTS) 24 25 25 22 20 12 11 14 16 16 18 12 11 SHEAR DIR 89 90 99 106 105 107 122 125 128 140 131 154 162 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 149 148 149 148 145 141 135 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 8 8 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 79 80 81 80 79 76 68 61 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 53 50 53 57 52 55 42 46 43 23 30 24 12 200 MB DIV 90 90 71 73 71 11 44 28 55 5 -5 7 -4 LAND (KM) 460 436 417 404 391 359 347 322 339 425 596 657 798 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.1 99.5 99.9 100.3 100.7 101.8 103.2 104.7 106.4 108.2 110.4 112.8 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 31. 30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED