* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 43 48 52 56 57 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 43 43 48 53 54 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 32 32 36 37 38 41 44 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 21 23 22 23 24 23 22 13 19 13 20 SHEAR DIR 280 263 277 290 303 276 303 290 311 308 326 325 320 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 162 160 158 158 157 155 153 152 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 158 157 153 149 148 146 142 140 138 137 135 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 65 61 60 57 59 56 58 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 59 49 32 34 15 21 13 14 1 2 -13 200 MB DIV 26 42 28 30 5 6 13 -5 0 0 0 -32 -35 LAND (KM) 356 302 259 236 180 88 41 -9 63 24 13 49 109 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.5 67.2 68.1 69.0 70.6 72.2 73.8 75.1 76.3 77.3 78.1 78.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 102 106 104 105 102 111 103 83 95 84 0 81 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 32. 35. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 103.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY