* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * INVEST EP902008 09/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 54 57 59 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 54 57 59 57 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 36 39 40 40 39 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 15 15 14 11 13 15 13 15 14 13 11 SHEAR DIR 73 90 84 95 105 123 138 146 161 156 181 189 204 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.5 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 154 153 154 152 147 140 130 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 10 8 11 9 10 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 82 80 79 81 81 80 79 75 68 65 62 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 43 38 42 40 25 34 18 0 16 4 -8 -5 200 MB DIV 63 48 61 52 26 37 24 38 2 -16 -10 -10 -8 LAND (KM) 264 218 175 156 139 118 108 142 246 426 527 661 842 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.4 18.6 18.5 18.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.2 99.8 101.4 103.2 105.2 107.1 109.3 111.9 114.4 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 830 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 29. 32. 34. 32. 31. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 29. 32. 34. 32. 31. 30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/20/08 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART