* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 46 50 55 61 64 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 34 38 34 44 47 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 27 30 28 34 38 44 50 SHEAR (KTS) 17 20 21 21 17 21 20 20 7 13 10 8 12 SHEAR DIR 280 272 290 305 302 276 286 298 328 289 350 316 5 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 160 158 156 154 153 155 154 152 151 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 153 151 147 142 141 143 140 136 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 65 60 61 57 60 55 56 52 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 41 30 37 23 16 23 11 21 6 12 -9 200 MB DIV 47 39 51 19 36 12 3 10 -13 2 -26 -37 -39 LAND (KM) 266 211 182 131 85 12 -32 10 0 77 86 83 66 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.9 67.6 68.4 69.2 70.5 71.8 73.2 74.3 75.2 75.7 76.1 76.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 106 101 93 95 93 100 9999 21 87 89 83 80 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 29. 34. 37. 41. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 25. 30. 36. 39. 43. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY