* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/21/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 53 61 69 75 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 33 30 28 27 27 30 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 27 36 43 50 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 9 5 9 13 6 6 9 6 9 5 8 SHEAR DIR 264 283 322 334 252 304 259 321 192 309 212 358 236 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 157 153 151 149 149 149 147 145 141 137 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 150 147 142 139 135 133 133 130 129 126 121 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 62 61 56 59 56 56 56 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 20 23 14 6 33 38 39 24 24 8 3 200 MB DIV 38 42 20 19 15 6 22 -7 -4 -4 1 0 -17 LAND (KM) 206 138 88 62 38 -22 -24 -56 -77 -44 45 145 244 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.8 67.3 67.7 68.1 69.0 69.7 70.5 71.1 71.5 71.8 71.9 71.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 102 94 92 92 85 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 27 44 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 35. 42. 47. 51. 53. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 28. 36. 44. 50. 51. 52. 52. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY