* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/21/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 44 46 47 47 47 48 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 44 46 47 47 47 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 24 21 21 16 18 15 19 12 17 15 18 17 28 SHEAR DIR 62 66 86 88 96 103 104 95 100 104 117 120 139 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.8 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 154 154 154 151 147 138 132 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 11 9 13 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 81 80 79 78 74 69 66 57 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 47 49 41 31 48 37 10 18 26 17 17 2 200 MB DIV 72 58 54 37 54 20 30 3 0 -7 -7 -17 13 LAND (KM) 204 151 107 85 64 65 78 160 275 483 630 737 882 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.2 98.6 99.2 99.7 101.1 102.9 104.7 106.8 109.1 111.5 113.8 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 19. 20. 20. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY