* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/21/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 51 63 71 79 78 79 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 29 28 27 27 27 29 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 37 41 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 11 13 15 10 12 3 15 8 18 11 14 SHEAR DIR 269 289 295 272 282 304 284 227 235 199 217 208 224 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 153 151 149 149 148 148 147 146 144 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 142 138 135 134 132 131 130 129 127 122 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 69 66 63 62 60 58 56 52 53 52 49 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 9 11 14 15 16 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 11 8 -1 26 41 46 57 48 41 31 35 200 MB DIV 28 13 15 0 -9 31 29 23 24 21 16 18 38 LAND (KM) 147 81 47 53 0 -21 -45 -56 -71 -55 0 79 129 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 67.1 67.6 68.0 68.4 69.2 69.9 70.5 70.9 71.0 71.0 70.8 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 96 93 92 89 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 55 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 26. 36. 43. 51. 52. 54. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 26. 38. 46. 54. 53. 54. 53. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED