* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/21/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 55 58 57 55 51 48 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 55 58 57 55 51 48 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 39 38 35 32 28 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 9 9 9 6 10 15 16 16 21 14 26 SHEAR DIR 88 91 107 135 157 201 223 245 244 248 244 232 215 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.3 27.2 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 154 153 153 147 136 126 120 110 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 79 78 72 68 61 55 54 49 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 86 79 64 60 39 27 14 15 9 3 -14 -33 200 MB DIV 40 24 31 39 20 1 -1 -5 -15 5 -4 -11 5 LAND (KM) 67 63 75 34 38 72 175 287 288 421 480 541 560 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.4 22.2 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.5 102.2 103.0 103.8 105.6 107.3 109.3 111.3 113.4 115.2 116.8 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 314 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 28. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 30. 31. 28. 25. 21. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 30. 33. 32. 30. 26. 23. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY