* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 45 54 63 70 74 75 77 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 45 54 63 70 74 75 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 43 50 57 61 63 64 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 11 15 13 9 6 12 9 18 13 15 10 SHEAR DIR 292 301 277 281 312 275 313 205 224 181 211 202 245 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 152 150 147 145 144 142 143 140 138 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 139 136 133 129 127 125 126 124 123 118 116 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 60 60 57 57 54 54 54 53 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 11 12 15 16 17 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 5 -2 1 28 34 40 35 34 29 47 43 200 MB DIV 14 13 1 -10 16 23 26 29 39 27 31 35 57 LAND (KM) 104 40 10 52 39 39 11 33 43 126 225 362 476 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.4 21.1 22.2 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.9 67.3 67.7 68.1 68.6 69.2 69.4 69.5 68.9 68.2 67.6 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 4 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 97 92 86 81 66 26 33 23 37 57 48 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 19. 29. 39. 46. 52. 53. 55. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 11. 20. 29. 38. 45. 49. 50. 52. 52. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY