* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 53 58 61 61 60 58 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 37 45 50 52 53 51 49 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 36 40 43 43 41 37 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 12 13 8 6 4 6 7 11 12 17 20 SHEAR DIR 72 98 101 102 119 146 226 171 232 224 254 196 214 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 155 154 149 139 129 123 117 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 11 8 12 8 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 82 82 79 80 79 76 71 63 61 53 56 53 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 55 50 64 51 32 18 23 19 13 11 -14 -28 200 MB DIV 31 35 41 31 12 11 5 -20 -4 -8 -22 2 -3 LAND (KM) 65 43 21 21 11 9 77 246 355 400 515 560 615 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.7 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.2 100.8 101.6 102.3 104.1 105.8 107.9 110.1 112.3 114.2 115.9 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 25. 32. 35. 35. 34. 31. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 33. 36. 36. 35. 33. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED