* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 55 64 69 75 76 79 80 85 V (KT) LAND 30 28 34 38 43 50 60 65 71 72 74 76 81 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 32 34 36 41 47 54 59 63 65 68 70 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 15 10 4 8 5 15 11 21 12 18 16 SHEAR DIR 301 265 271 322 302 260 234 233 196 229 217 237 225 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 146 143 139 135 132 131 132 138 144 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 134 131 129 124 120 117 115 117 124 130 120 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 57 59 54 59 53 60 56 58 50 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 9 11 12 14 16 19 19 22 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 5 4 30 21 28 8 37 30 61 63 118 200 MB DIV 20 17 4 9 30 -1 52 34 72 41 62 89 123 LAND (KM) 18 -22 33 83 133 255 299 345 401 524 711 800 485 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.3 24.5 26.2 28.7 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.8 66.9 67.2 67.9 68.7 69.6 70.5 71.2 72.0 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 90 9999 51 71 65 47 39 30 34 31 24 31 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 10. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 33. 39. 47. 49. 52. 53. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 34. 39. 45. 46. 49. 50. 55. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY