* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 56 57 55 51 46 40 34 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 56 57 55 51 46 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 38 38 36 33 29 24 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 11 7 5 6 11 17 14 16 18 28 27 SHEAR DIR 104 113 127 143 210 205 225 233 250 234 224 230 239 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.8 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.6 23.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 152 151 143 132 125 117 108 99 95 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 7 5 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 75 74 76 71 67 61 57 51 51 45 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 69 66 55 45 40 25 36 30 25 -1 -17 -21 200 MB DIV 39 33 26 -3 -5 16 -8 6 6 -3 -2 4 0 LAND (KM) 143 133 114 122 122 215 335 340 456 481 513 480 359 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.7 23.9 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.8 103.5 104.5 105.4 107.4 109.6 111.9 114.0 115.6 116.8 117.4 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 10 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 25. 27. 27. 23. 19. 13. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 31. 32. 30. 26. 21. 15. 9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED