* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 51 57 61 66 69 72 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 51 57 61 66 69 72 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 48 52 56 59 58 53 SHEAR (KTS) 13 20 16 16 19 5 18 17 25 26 32 37 48 SHEAR DIR 263 270 283 239 254 247 234 253 222 255 229 232 216 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.5 27.8 27.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 142 140 138 134 132 133 139 145 136 131 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 129 125 123 120 117 117 123 130 120 112 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -53.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 6 2 1 700-500 MB RH 63 58 55 58 56 59 56 59 59 62 65 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 12 13 14 15 17 18 20 22 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 10 6 12 29 34 23 24 41 96 152 172 143 105 200 MB DIV 16 3 11 33 -14 28 22 37 63 66 75 63 43 LAND (KM) 31 100 169 191 225 286 419 569 735 863 542 278 115 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.6 21.1 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.4 28.6 31.6 34.0 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 67.7 67.8 68.0 68.2 68.9 70.0 70.5 70.5 71.0 72.1 73.4 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 5 6 7 8 8 9 13 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 82 71 60 55 48 34 34 30 23 20 18 13 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 27. 32. 37. 41. 44. 42. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 27. 31. 36. 39. 42. 40. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY