* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 50 52 49 45 41 36 29 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 50 52 49 45 41 36 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 33 30 26 21 SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 15 9 10 6 11 13 19 18 22 21 27 SHEAR DIR 98 102 111 136 127 173 182 221 210 227 214 237 241 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.5 23.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 151 147 139 129 123 116 107 95 87 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 9 10 7 6 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 71 68 65 57 55 51 51 49 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 49 41 35 30 23 24 21 11 -10 -19 -18 200 MB DIV 30 19 -2 -2 6 -7 7 3 -8 2 9 -3 -16 LAND (KM) 177 147 142 152 152 265 355 394 509 550 614 636 527 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.0 23.0 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.5 104.2 105.1 106.0 107.9 110.0 112.2 114.3 116.0 117.5 118.6 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 24. 23. 19. 15. 9. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 25. 27. 24. 20. 16. 11. 4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY