* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/22/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 58 68 73 80 87 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 58 68 73 80 87 92 90 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 38 44 51 57 62 66 70 70 SHEAR (KTS) 20 18 7 9 9 6 11 6 16 7 16 17 27 SHEAR DIR 270 293 301 253 269 208 265 199 225 223 236 238 263 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 145 141 137 132 131 135 143 145 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 132 130 130 126 122 118 117 121 127 129 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 55 56 58 56 59 58 59 55 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 13 13 13 16 15 20 20 23 28 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 37 45 36 49 37 65 50 65 56 66 83 200 MB DIV 4 13 37 0 8 32 40 72 47 90 133 91 50 LAND (KM) 53 40 23 33 10 67 133 244 400 589 807 940 884 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.4 21.0 22.0 23.4 25.1 27.0 29.4 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.5 69.0 69.5 70.0 70.9 71.5 71.8 71.4 70.8 69.9 68.8 67.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 8 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 77 19 55 12 37 44 48 6 23 28 25 27 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 8. 10. 14. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 28. 39. 45. 52. 59. 63. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 28. 38. 44. 50. 57. 62. 60. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED