* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 09/22/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 44 44 42 38 34 26 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 44 44 42 38 34 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 30 28 25 22 18 SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 16 16 14 10 17 17 15 19 28 27 31 SHEAR DIR 107 114 121 127 149 182 205 238 213 212 215 229 235 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.6 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.0 24.2 23.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 146 140 132 125 120 112 103 95 94 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 9 9 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 68 64 58 55 50 52 47 44 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 62 48 41 41 40 22 25 24 31 2 -23 -42 -29 200 MB DIV 13 -12 -6 10 16 2 7 -5 11 12 3 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 227 223 226 237 283 402 367 449 486 536 578 545 460 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.9 105.7 106.7 107.6 109.6 111.5 113.5 115.0 116.5 117.5 118.0 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 20. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 19. 17. 13. 7. 0. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 19. 19. 17. 13. 9. 1. -5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 09/22/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 09/22/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY