* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 50 57 67 74 81 87 92 89 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 36 45 53 60 66 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 27 34 40 46 53 58 64 66 SHEAR (KTS) 20 13 11 12 7 10 8 11 11 12 13 19 22 SHEAR DIR 287 288 259 278 308 241 284 205 248 215 284 258 298 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 153 153 150 149 145 139 139 145 148 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 140 140 139 134 133 130 126 126 133 134 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 64 59 59 59 61 59 61 60 57 54 53 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 15 14 16 19 21 26 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 8 25 38 33 43 57 52 69 68 64 57 55 54 200 MB DIV 23 22 1 12 26 30 36 39 42 46 85 82 11 LAND (KM) 10 -10 -10 -45 -53 -10 31 133 290 522 773 1011 986 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.7 20.1 21.1 22.5 24.5 26.7 29.3 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.0 69.6 70.2 70.8 71.7 72.3 72.6 72.3 71.3 70.0 67.9 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 6 9 12 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 44 24 0 9999 9999 3 12 42 24 26 25 27 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 29. 38. 45. 52. 59. 63. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 10. 20. 27. 37. 44. 51. 57. 62. 59. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.7 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY