* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 37 42 49 61 68 77 81 87 91 86 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 33 44 51 60 65 70 74 69 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 28 31 37 44 50 57 62 65 63 SHEAR (KTS) 20 13 15 9 2 9 5 14 8 16 16 28 39 SHEAR DIR 284 272 277 325 11 258 188 223 221 238 263 257 236 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.2 28.1 28.6 28.7 27.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 153 153 151 145 139 139 147 149 135 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 141 139 138 135 131 126 125 133 134 120 109 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 700-500 MB RH 61 58 60 58 58 55 59 54 52 48 42 34 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 12 14 13 16 17 20 20 25 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 17 35 42 47 62 49 74 61 60 52 73 48 78 200 MB DIV 22 0 -1 24 61 30 53 38 63 50 46 -1 26 LAND (KM) -16 -26 -47 -66 -44 11 122 293 514 785 779 634 604 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.9 20.9 22.5 24.5 26.9 29.7 32.8 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.4 70.0 70.5 71.0 71.7 72.1 72.1 72.0 71.3 70.8 69.8 68.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 7 9 11 13 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 47 9999 9999 9999 9999 8 59 31 30 26 21 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 8. 8. 11. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 32. 39. 48. 52. 58. 62. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 31. 38. 47. 51. 57. 61. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY