* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/23/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 48 57 63 69 74 80 85 81 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 35 44 50 56 61 67 72 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 27 32 36 42 48 55 62 67 66 SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 12 8 12 12 10 8 6 11 17 22 37 SHEAR DIR 264 275 287 244 245 278 217 232 199 265 261 244 227 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 27.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 151 149 145 139 140 145 149 138 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 139 138 136 134 130 125 126 131 133 123 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 56 54 58 57 52 47 48 43 42 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 12 13 11 13 15 16 17 18 23 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 42 55 57 58 65 61 61 61 81 84 96 200 MB DIV 10 4 17 43 25 36 20 36 21 41 46 44 24 LAND (KM) -8 -16 -60 -48 -33 20 133 288 493 741 798 624 635 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.5 20.0 21.1 22.5 24.5 26.7 29.4 32.4 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.8 70.4 70.9 71.4 72.3 72.7 72.9 72.5 71.8 70.9 70.2 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 9 11 13 14 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 17 0 9999 9999 9999 1 50 34 33 29 21 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 10. 17. 26. 34. 41. 46. 53. 58. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 11. 18. 27. 33. 39. 44. 50. 55. 51. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY