* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 09/23/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 43 53 60 70 75 82 86 86 79 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 40 46 56 62 69 73 72 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 33 37 42 48 53 58 60 58 SHEAR (KTS) 20 10 9 15 15 7 15 5 19 14 21 33 49 SHEAR DIR 266 278 244 244 275 246 246 199 250 258 249 230 234 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.1 26.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 151 151 148 142 139 144 149 140 126 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 135 135 133 128 127 132 134 125 112 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -52.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 53 54 59 51 53 45 45 45 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 19 19 22 24 27 30 31 26 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 55 56 51 72 56 72 43 73 85 123 117 200 MB DIV 15 25 32 17 27 60 35 74 77 71 12 51 60 LAND (KM) 0 -42 -42 -27 -11 76 220 433 710 993 861 764 492 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.5 21.8 23.7 26.1 28.8 31.8 35.2 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.2 70.8 71.2 71.6 72.2 72.0 71.3 69.6 68.7 67.7 67.3 65.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 6 8 12 14 15 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 5 69 26 32 35 32 15 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 8. 9. 12. 14. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 23. 30. 41. 47. 55. 59. 58. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 23. 30. 40. 45. 52. 56. 56. 49. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 09/23/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED